Crash prediction models for curved segments of rural two-lane two-way highways were developed. The modeling effort included the calibration of the predictive model found in the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) as well as the development of Utah-specific models developed using negative binomial regression. The data for these models came from randomly sampled curved segments in Utah, with crash data coming from years 2008-2012. The calibration factor for the HSM predictive model was determined to be 1.50 for the three-year period and 1.60 for the five-year period. A negative binomial model was used to develop Utah-specific crash prediction models based on both the three-year and five-year sample periods. The significant variables were average annual daily traffic, segment length, total truck percentage, and curve radius. The main benefit of the Utah-specific crash prediction models is that they provide a reasonable level of accuracy for crash prediction yet only require four variables.


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    Titel :

    Development of Crash Prediction Models for Curved Segments of Rural Two-Lane Highways


    Beteiligte:
    Knecht, Casey (Autor:in) / Saito, Mitsuru (Autor:in) / Schultz, Grant G. (Autor:in)

    Kongress:

    International Conference on Transportation and Development 2016 ; 2016 ; Houston, Texas



    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2016-06-20




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Konferenz)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch



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