This paper forecasts the future trade amount and international cargo flow, especially focused in China, using by the stepwise trade amount and international logistics flow forecasting system in East Asia that the author had been developed. For the trade forecasting sub-model, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, the most famous model to predict world's trade amount applying Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model, is applied after a few modifications. A future scenario is prepared on the future economic direction based on interview survey to many experts, including advancement of economic cooperation such as FTA. For the international cargo flow forecasting sub-model, the original model developed by the authors in order to reproduce international logistics flow on multimode transport network in East Asia including road, land, and ferry transport as well as international maritime shipping is applied, where cargo transport demand (i.e. OD cargo volume) between regions are given. In the future simulation using this sub-model, the future investment plan of the transport infrastructure such as new container terminal construction in Chinese ports should be considered. Furthermore, by comparing the calculation result without any consideration of these policies, the effect of these policies can be quantitatively measured in terms of transport cost reduction.


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    Titel :

    Future Forecast of Chinese Trade Amount and International Cargo Flow


    Beteiligte:

    Kongress:

    Seventh International Conference on Traffic and Transportation Studies (ICTTS) 2010 ; 2010 ; Kunming, China



    Erscheinungsdatum :

    26.07.2010




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Konferenz)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch




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