This paper deals with stochastic dependence in the modeling of train delays and delay propagation. Three types of delay dependence are first formulated and a probabilistic model of delay propagation in complex stations is then described. Model validation reveals that the delay estimates match with empirical data very well. The proposed model enables an objective assessment of timetable stability and a realistic prediction of train punctuality given primary delays.
Dealing with Stochastic Dependence in the Modeling of Train Delays and Delay Propagation
First International Conference on Transportation Engineering ; 2007 ; Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China
2007-07-09
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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