The objective of this study is to demonstrate how scenario planning can be used for identifying forces and drivers that could influence the future of transportation system over a 30 year period. The researchers also used qualitative and quantitative methods to develop key implications for state transportation agencies for addressing underlying challenges and siege potential opportunities that the transportation industry might face. The method combines a causal loop diagram and cross-impact matrix to understand the interactions among the drivers and then hierarchical cluster analysis to identify how drivers can be grouped, representing expected behavior of the drivers in a particular way in future. These expectations are described in the baseline scenario and six multi-driver scenarios representing alternative futures. Transportation agencies may use these scenarios to assess the performance of their plans or assumptions against potentially radical shifts in future and develop strategies that could make the transportation system resilient to a wide variety of uncertain but possible future conditions.
Using Scenario Planning for Identifying Major Future Trends and Their Implications for State Transportation Agencies
International Conference on Sustainable Infrastructure 2017 ; 2017 ; New York, New York
2017-10-24
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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