This paper presents a methodology to estimate the discrepancy in the model output of untested coupled multiphysics systems, based on tests on related systems. Model predictions often exhibit discrepancy with respect to experimental observations, due to assumptions and approximations in the model. Bayesian approaches for estimating discrepancy in single models have been studied in the past. This paper approaches the problem of discrepancy prediction in coupled multiple models (especially multidisciplinary models) using Bayesian state estimation methods. The proposed state-estimation-based approach is found to have significant advantages over the previously studied Kennedy–O’Hagan method, in the estimation of discrepancies of hidden states, and in the identification of the sources of these discrepancies, namely, model form errors. The proposed approach is illustrated for a four-discipline problem related to aerothermoelastic response prediction of a hypersonic aircraft panel.
Model Error Propagation in Coupled Multiphysics Systems
AIAA Journal ; 58 , 5 ; 2236-2245
2020-03-20
10 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
Model error propagation in coupled multi-physics systems
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