Die global gemittelte bodennahe Lufttemperatur steigt; Klimawandel manifestiert sich auch in vielen anderen atmosphärischen Variablen. Mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit ist ein großer Teil der beobachteten Klimaänderung anthropogen. Der Verkehr trägt zu dieser Klimaänderung signifikant bei. Vom Verkehr stammen ca. 25% aller anthropogenen CO2-Emissionen, die auf die Verbrennung fossiler Treibstoffe und die Zementproduktion zurückzuführen sind. Der Straßenverkehr ist für den bei weitem größten Beitrag der CO2-Emissionen des Verkehrs verantwortlich. Verkehr beeinflusst das Klima nicht nur durch Emission langlebiger Treibhausgase (wie z.B. CO2), sondern zusätzlich: durch Emission von Vorläufern von sekundären Treibhausgasen (z.B. Ozon), durch Emission von Aerosolen und Aerosolvorläufern und durch Modifikation von Wolkenbedeckung und optischen Eigenschaften von Wolken. Die Klimawirkung all dieser Beiträge ist noch nicht konsistent quantifiziert. Deshalb ist es schwierig, Effekte, die über die Emission langlebiger Treibhausgase hinausgehen, beim Emissionshandel zu berücksichtigen. Die ausstehende Quantifizierung wird immer dringender, da man davon ausgeht, dass der Verkehr schneller als die meisten anderen industriellen Sektoren wachsen wird.
Transport is a rapidly increasing industrial sector. Despite all the successful reductions in specific emissions the total emissions globally increased in the past and probably will do so in the next decades. This is particularly true for the CO2 emissions, but also for many minor species. Therefore, it is necessary to study the impact of anthropogenic emissions on climate in general, and the specific effects of transport in particular, and to consider measures that lead to a reduction of the total emissions thereby allowing a reasonable amount of mobility. Our knowledge on the past and potential future evolution of climate depends on our knowledge of the forcing agents. A detailed analysis of climate change and the attribution of potential causes requires experiments with the climate system. As we only have one real climate system, the one we are living in, we cannot perform experiments in the classical laboratory sense. The way out of this dilemma are numerical experiments on the basis of a climate model. A climate model maps the real climate system on a system of equations (usually a system of coupled nonlinear partial differential equations), which usually can only be solved numerically. The global mean near surface air temperature is rising, associated with many other climate changes. Most probably, a large part of the observed climate change is anthropogenic. Transport significantly contributes to climate change. About 25% of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and cement production are from transport, where road transport is responsible for the by far largest fraction. Beyond the emission of long-lived greenhouse gases, such as CO2, transport contributes to climate change by emitting precursors of secondary greenhouse gases (e.g., ozone), by emitting aerosols or aerosol precursors, and by modifying cloud cover and cloud optical properties. Their impacts on climate still lacks a consistent quantification, which makes is difficult include the effects beyond long-lived greenhouse gases into emission trading. Doing this quantification becomes more and more important as transport is expected to grow faster than other industrial sectors. In order to fairly estimate the total effects of the various modes of transport (beyond the impact of long-lived greenhouse gases), reliable estimates of this impacts are required. The ongoing EC funded Integrated Project QUANTIFY8 will provide a consistent estimate of these climate impacts.
Impact of transport on climate
Der Einfluss des Verkehrs auf das Klima
2005
13 Seiten, 15 Bilder, 10 Quellen
Conference paper
English
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