Fears about global warming and resource scarcity have driven regulators around the globe to limit the CO2 emissions and fuel consumption of passenger vehicles. Particularly in Europe these limits are strict. The internal combustion engine still has significant optimization potential . according to our calculations around 30 % to 40 % - compared to its current performance level. While this is sufficient to meet regulatory demands outside Europe, the European Union will probably require a certain number of zero-emission (or partial zero-emission) vehicles to meet its targets. Most incumbent OEMs are therefore taking a two-pronged approach, optimizing the internal combustion engine and at the same time working on electrifying the powertrain. Will we all be driving electric vehicles in 2020 or 2030? No. But there will be a significant number of EVs and PHEVs on the road by 2020: up to 20 % of all vehicles in the EU27 and 8 to 10 % worldwide. This level of increase depends on fuel costs continuing to rise as they have done in the past and the costs of components falling significantly. Of course, there is a limit to how far battery costs can be driven down. EVs and PHEVs will still face EUR 4000 to 5000 higher material costs than conventional cars unless there is a major breakthrough in battery technology. which is unlikely in the period to 2020. The only drivers of advantages with regard to the total cost of ownership (TCO) are therefore regulatory measures such as city tolls, and a much higher fuel price. However, a much higher fuel price would make alternative technologies such as second-generation biofuels and hydrogen fuel cells a viable option. So while all future powertrains will be electrified to some extent and electric traction will be increasingly important, the combustion engine is likely to remain with us over the next two to three decades, if only because it provides good value at a relatively low initial cost. How should OEMs and suppliers be responding? They must deal with the high level of uncertainty. And they must develop new business models and create alternative revenue streams to compensate for technology substitution. We believe that EVs will appear through a process of evolution, not revolution. The current hype in the press is similar to the hype about the Internet in the late 1990s and the early years of the new century. There was a core of truth in many of the stories that appeared then, but expectations were too high and many business models subsequently collapsed. Nevertheless, the Internet made its way in and is now an essential part of our daily lives. We believe that the same will happen with electromobility.
Electromobility. The only way forward?
Elektromobilität. Der einzige Weg in die Zukunft?
2010
17 Seiten, 21 Bilder
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Datenträger
Englisch
Electromobility - the only way forward?
Kraftfahrwesen | 2010
|Electromobility - the only way forward?
Kraftfahrwesen | 2010
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