We utilize fatigue-crack-growth and load-spectra data published in the open literature to estimate aircraft probability of failure (PoF). We show that because single flight PoF values should not exceed 10-7, the behavior of the tail of the initial defect distribution significantly affects the predicted safe life. We demonstrate that even a slight variation of initial defect distribution parameters considerably changes the number of allowable flight hours. A similar effect is observed when the aircraft fatigue-damage assessment is based on the existence of a defined size crack with a specified (small) probability. We consider on-line damage-monitoring sensors and show that use of such sensor data leads to improved accuracy of the safe-life predictions. Finally, we outline an approach for a more accurate assessment of the initial defect distribution that is based on applying recently developed analytical and computational tools to extensive metallographic examination data.
Effect of accuracy of the initial defect distribution on successful prognosis of aircraft structures
2009
9 Seiten, 16 Quellen
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Englisch
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