In a competitive world the utilisation of resources is very critical. It is essential for a shipyard or a design agency to explore the market to know where and how the demand is likely to develop and behave. In this work, a forecasting model is presented for an integrated marketing management model in which the shipyards are integrated at different levels (i.e. national or international) via consortiums. The proposed forecasting model uses a combined methodology driven by neural networks, weighted fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms, and the proposed integrated forecasting model has been used to simulate the shipping and shipbuilding markets. In the present forecasting model, neural networks (NN) are used to predict economic conditions at some future desired span of time (i.e. in this applications five years). In neural networks the back propagation neural networks are utilised. The output from the neural network model is input to a Weighted Fuzzy Petri Net based decision modeller (WFPNBDM). Another input to the WFPNBDM is from the expert's analysis (i.e. from organisations like International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and United Nations) dealing with the impact analysis of nanoeconomic events, geo-political environment, and weather conditions at future date. The WFPNBDM is designed using fundamentals from the theory of Petri nets, and genetic algorithms (GA). Finally, three case studies (i.e. global container traffic, new shipbuilding price indices, and market shares of shipbuilding nations) driven by the real world data and applications are presented to show the applicability of the proposed model, and ideas.
Development of an integrated market forecasting model for shipping, and shipbuilding parameters
Entwicklung eines integrierten Marktprognosemodells für die Schifffahrt und den Schiffbau
2007
15 Seiten, 9 Bilder, 5 Tabellen, 33 Quellen
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Englisch
Entscheidungshilfe , Expertenwissen , Fallstudie , Fuzzy-Modell , genetischer Algorithmus , Handelsstatistik , Inferenzmechanismus , künstliche Intelligenz , Marktanteil , Marktuntersuchung , Modellbildung , neuronales Netz , Petri-Netz , Produktionsstatistik , Rückwärtsausbreitung , Schiffbau , Schifffahrt , Seeschiff , Simulation , Software-Werkzeug , Statistik , technische Entwicklung , Trend (Entwicklung) , Vorhersagetheorie , Weltmarkt , Werft , Wettbewerb , Witterungsbedingung , zukünftiger Bedarf
Development of an Integrated Market Forecasting Model for Shipping, and Shipbuilding Parameters
British Library Conference Proceedings | 2007
|Japanese shipbuilding and shipping development
Engineering Index Backfile | 1936
Engineering Index Backfile | 1931
|Engineering Index Backfile | 1919
Engineering Index Backfile | 1931
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