In this paper a typology of consequences is developed that can be used for environmental assessments of investment in technologies. As an illustration the authors discuss how the inclusion of different cause-effect chains could affect the estimated greenhouse gas emissions resulting from buying and using a fuel cell bus today. In contrast to earlier studies, cause-effect chains are included containing positive feedback from adoption (e.g. economies of scale and learning). The authors discuss how these findings affect the usefulness and limitations of consequential life-cycle assessment (LCA) and how LCA methodology in more general can be used to support strategic technology choice. A major conclusion is that environmental assessments of investment in emerging technologies should not only include effects resulting from marginal change of the current system but also marginal contributions to radical system change. The technology life cycle (not the life cycle of an object) can be divided into different phases. For a mature technology, positive feedback does little, but for an emerging technology, the direct environmental impact is small and negative feedback is lacking and the major environmental consequences of an investment stem from positive feedback mechanisms that could influence the growth pattern and realise a future potential. When a new promising technology (fuel cell) is demonstrated, even the old technology (combustion engine) might be improved for competitive reasons.
Positive and negative feedback in consequential life-cycle assessment
Positive und negative Rückkopplung im Lebenszyklus von neuen Technologien
Journal of Cleaner Production ; 15 , 15 ; 1469-1481
2007
13 Seiten, 5 Bilder, 71 Quellen
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Englisch
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