Uncertainty quantification methods have the potential to revolutionise the practice of airframe design and certification by fundamentally altering the roles played by analysis and testing in assessing the safety, performance, and cost of airframes; however, extensive basic and applied research is still required in several areas to develop an adequate level of technical maturity to promote increased reliance on analysis for airframe certification. This includes further development of high-fidelity analysis methods, especially those for modelling extreme environments and complex, multi-scale physical processes that influence structural integrity. These needs can be addressed through continued targeted research in standard aerospace engineering and materials disciplines; however, the return-on-investment from these activities will be improved by ensuring that they directly address UQ needs, many of which have been described above or in the research cited herein. A perhaps more imposing hurdle exists in the lack of consensus within the airframe design and certification community on how to use quantitative risk assessment to support certification decisions. Until some agreement is achieved, traditional safety factors and comprehensive building-block test programmes will continue to dominate risk assessment in the certification process. This certification philosophy has been mostly successful in the past, but it institutes a sub-optimal approach to measuring risk, especially for the implementation of new structural concepts and technology. The combined capabilities of explicit uncertainty quantification, higher-fidelity analyses, and health monitoring will provide engineers with the ability to better assess the safety of an airframe than current practice. Whatever the nature of the eventual risk-informed certification framework, it must be remembered that the ultimate purpose of implementing UQ is to produce useful information for making decisions. The goal should be to make decisions harder only to the extent that decisions also become smarter. The current approaches have developed over time to address a multitude of technical and managerial considerations. Any UQ-based approach must therefore reflect technical and managerial requirements both in establishing required levels of safety and required levels of confidence in response predictions.
Uncertainty and risk in aircraft structures: current status and recommended directions
International Journal of Materials and Product Technology ; 25 , 1-3 ; 211-230
2006
20 Seiten, 2 Bilder, 47 Quellen
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Englisch
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