The present research focuses on electric vehicles as part of the Portuguese policy to make the transportation system more energy efficient and environmentally friendly. The main goal is to estimate the fleetwide energy consumption and corresponding carbon dioxide emissions up to 2030 and examine to what extent the introduction of electric vehicles will reduce those indicators. A system dynamics model of the Portuguese car fleet was developed that captures the inter relationships between the main drivers of the system while simulating the car owners’ behavior when selecting technologies. To analyze the evolution of energy consumption and carbon emissions, a scenario analysis is followed. In addition, a series of transportation policy instruments is tested in each scenario in order to analyze reduction effectiveness of emissions and increasing diffusion of electric vehicles. We concluded that a fast-growing economy is the best scenario to decrease energy consumption mostly due to the expected increase in fuel efficiency of the car stock deriving from a faster technological turnover of internal combustion engine vehicles. Regarding transportation policy instruments, the increase in the tax applied to fossil-fuel sales as well as applied to conventional vehicles’ sales are the most efficient policies to increase the diffusion of electric vehicles. Importantly, according to our results, the uptake of electric vehicles is expected to be rather low (less than 10% of new cars until 2030), regardless of the scenario or transportation policy analyzed.


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    Titel :

    Electric vehicle diffusion in the Portuguese automobile market


    Beteiligte:


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2016-02-07


    Format / Umfang :

    16 pages




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch




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