The dynamic characteristics of automobile demand are critical for national economic and revenue predictions. Automobile demand and ownership level forecasts are also the basis for travel demand models, land-use-transport interaction models, and transport policies and regulations. In this article, a dynamic automobile demand simulation model is developed utilizing a simultaneous-equation system. The system considers the interaction between supply and demand and the resulting equilibrium. Although forecasting automobile demand has been previously investigated, it has not been within such a dynamic simulation framework. Our model includes the current and lagged automobile quantity and price variables; economic, financial and operating cost variables; and income and government policy variables. The capabilities of the model are then demonstrated through performing a number of simulation experiments considering various growth-development scenarios, changes in operating costs, government policies towards automobile imports, and demographic/employment shifts. Relevant tests are applied to examine the econometric specifications and to evaluate the simulation model performance.


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    Titel :

    Forecasting Automobile Demand for Economies in Transition: A Dynamic Simultaneous-Equation System Approach


    Beteiligte:

    Erschienen in:

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2002-01-01


    Format / Umfang :

    21 pages




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Unbekannt