This study aims to develop a truncated lognormal distribution model to predict work zone capacity. The distribution model parameters are formulated as linear functions of road type, number of closed lanes, number of opened lanes, lane closure location, work duration, work intensity, work time, heavy‐vehicle percentage, and capacity measurement method. To reflect the uncertainty, a prediction band is constructed for the mean work zone capacity. The maximum likelihood estimation technique is used to determine the coefficients of the variables included in the probability distribution‐based capacity model. The sensitivity analysis results confirm that the proposed model has the capability of accurately predicting the mean and prediction band of work zone capacity at any given confidence level. In addition, it is found that work zones located in urban roads, with a large number of opened lanes, low heavy‐vehicle percentage, or long‐term work duration, have larger mean work zone capacity. A work zone with the closure of the right lane has bigger variability of work zone capacity than a work zone with the left‐lane closure. In addition, the measured work zone capacity is a little bigger if the hourly traffic volume converted from the maximum 3‐/5‐/15‐minute flow rate is considered as the work zone capacity. The proposed probability distribution‐based capacity model can help traffic engineers to evaluate the variability of work zone capacity and travel delay range. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.


    Zugriff

    Zugriff über TIB

    Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

    Bestellung bei Subito €


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    Probability distribution‐based model for work zone capacity prediction


    Beteiligte:

    Erschienen in:

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2016




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Print


    Sprache :

    Englisch



    Klassifikation :

    BKL:    55.21 Kraftfahrzeuge / 55.21
    Lokalklassifikation TIB:    275/7020



    New Methodology to Determine Work Zone Capacity Distribution

    Weng, Jinxian / Yan, Xuedong | Transportation Research Record | 2014


    Survey of Work Zone Practices and Validation of Highway Capacity Manual Work Zone Capacity Model

    Thapa, Raju / Codjoe, Julius / Osafo, Amanua | Transportation Research Record | 2021


    Decision Tree–Based Model for Estimation of Work Zone Capacity

    Weng, Jinxian / Meng, Qiang | Transportation Research Record | 2011



    Predicting Freeway Work Zone Capacity Distribution Based on Logistic Speed-Density Models

    Chaoru Lu / Jing Dong / Anuj Sharma et al. | DOAJ | 2018

    Freier Zugriff