This paper presents a framework for addressing uncertainty and risk for large-scale transportation investments involving public-private participation. Demand, fare/toll and demand responsive costs are considered in the uncertainty analysis. Uncertainty analysis provides information on economic feasibility of the project. A set of relaxation policies is proposed to form various Ownership, Tenure and Governance (OTG) strategies reflecting the nature and level of participation by the public and private entity. A Monte Carlo Simulation-based Value at Risk is used to quantify risk. Finally, a methodology is proposed to integrate uncertainty and risk. The framework is tested on the proposed multibillion dollar Detroit River International Crossing connecting the cities of Detroit in the USA with Windsor in Canada. The analysis provides insights to probable outcomes for this transportation infrastructure investment under different OTG scenarios.


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    Titel :

    Incorporating uncertainty and risk in transportation investment decision-making




    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2015




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Print


    Sprache :

    Englisch


    Schlagwörter :

    Klassifikation :

    BKL:    55.80 / 74.75 / 55.80 Verkehrswesen, Transportwesen: Allgemeines / 74.75 Verkehrsplanung, Verkehrspolitik
    Lokalklassifikation TIB:    770/7000



    Incorporating uncertainty and risk in transportation investment decision-making

    Mishra, Sabyasachee / Khasnabis, Snehamay / Swain, Subrat | Taylor & Francis Verlag | 2015


    Incorporating Uncertainty into Transportation Decision Making

    Jeon, Christy Mihyeon | Transportation Research Record | 2010