Safe separation of aircraft is a primary objective of any air traffic control system. An accelerated Monte Carlo approach was developed to assess the level of safety provided by a proposed next-generation air traffic control system. It combines features of fault tree and standard Monte Carlo methods. It runs more than one order of magnitude faster than the standard Monte Carlo method while providing risk estimates that only differ by about 10%. It also preserves component-level model fidelity that is difficult to maintain using the standard fault tree method. This balance of speed and fidelity allows sensitivity analysis to be completed in days instead of weeks or months with the standard Monte Carlo method. Results indicate that risk estimates are sensitive to transponder, pilot visual avoidance, and conflict detection failure probabilities.
Accelerated Monte Carlo Simulation for Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept
10th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conference ; 2010 ; Fort Worth, TX, United States
2010-09-13
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Keine Angabe
Englisch
2010-9372 Accelerated Monte Carlo Simulation for Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept
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