In an era of intensifying strategic competition, the challenge of deterrence is becoming increasingly relevantand, thus, so is the issue of what factors cause deterrence to succeed or fail. This question prompted a two-year research agenda for the U.S. Army. In earlier work connected to the same project, RAND Corporation researchers conducted a quantitative analysis of 39 cases of U.S.-led extended deterrence since 1945and derived 12 variables that tend to determine whether extended deterrence policies succeed or fail (see Table S.1). In this report, we apply those variables to two ongoing examples of extended deterrence: U.S. efforts to deter North Korean aggression against South Korea and U.S. efforts to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan.1Our analysis leads us to conclude that the state of interstate deterrence in Korea is healthy. The United States and its ally South Korea (officially the Republic of Korea)have a robust military presence on the peninsula that, at a minimum, would make any effort by North Korea (officially the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea) to reunify the nations by force extremely costly and, more likely, would bloodily rebuff such an attempt and result in ending the Kim familys rule. The deterrent effect of this military presence is enhanced by the fact that the bulk of it is provided by indigenous South Korean military personnel who are committed to defend their homeland. The United States has also communicated its willingness to defend South Korea against such an attack on numerous occasions, at the highest levels, and in unambiguous terms.
What Deters and Why: The State of Deterrence in Korea and the Taiwan Strait
2021
110 pages
Report
Keine Angabe
Englisch
Behavior & Society , Military Operations, Strategy, & Tactics , Geography , National politics , International law , Warfare , Air force , Contingency operations (military) , Intercontinental ballistic missiles , International relations , National security , Political systems , Air power , Governments , Treaties , Political science , Department of state , Economic systems , Fighter aircraft , Intergovernmental organizations , Military personnel , Public policy
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