To assess the overall effectiveness of a transportation physical protection system, computer codes which simulate armed attacks have been developed and are being used to examine issues associated with road transportation. The paper discusses codes--SOURCE (which simulates the initial ambush). SABRES I (which covers the battle) and BARS (which treats the penetration of protective cargo barriers). These methodologies evaluate the value of additional vehicles, guards, armor and alternative tactics or equipment as a means of improving convoy security. The results demonstrate that the protection offered by the present commercial regulations for guards and vehicles is probably marginal. This could be substantially increased by the addition of armor to close escort vehicles instead of just the transporter and the use of appropriate tactics. Against the baseline threat of adversaries armed with M-16's observation and harassment from a modest distance until re-enforcements arrive, appears preferable to aggressive assault by the ambushed guard force.


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