Accident prediction modeling studies are good for identifying correlations between crash risk and explanatory factors, but cannot give definite safety effects of countermeasures related to the significant covariates. Causality can only be proven using crash reconstruction methods or carefully constructed before-after studies, both of which require special data observation or analysis time, making them impractical to apply on large study data sets representing the variation of characteristics in the road network. This report proposes two advances in crash modeling: (1) a collision type categorization based on factors contributing to the occurrence of collisions to support estimation of prediction models that can better identify crash causality, and (2) definition of crash exposure to consider the traffic flow situation that is necessary for specific collision types to occur.
Investigation of a New Approach for Representing Traffic Volumes in Highway Crash Analysis and Forecasting
2008
66 pages
Report
Keine Angabe
Englisch
Transportation Safety , Road Transportation , Transportation & Traffic Planning , Human Resources , Highway safety , Traffic volume , Motor vehicle accidents , Accident analysis , Investigations , Risk , Forecasting , Traffic flow , Exposure , Land use , Countermeasures , Accident prevention , Evaluation , Methodology , Rear end crashes , Head-on crashes
New Approach for Including Traffic Volumes in Crash Rate Analysis and Forecasting
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