Three electric and hybrid vehicle (EHV) market-penetration scenarios are developed for 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010. The first scenario is intended to maximize the substitution of electricity for gasoline in the 101 metropolitan areas of the US that are nonattainment areas for ozone; by 2010, 12 million EHVs are projected to be operating in those areas. The second scenario focuses on the nine metropolitan areas with the worst ozone problems and projects six million electric vehicles in the nine areas by 2010. The third scenario, like the first, projects 12 million EHVs in operation by 2010 but distributes the vehicles to all metropolitan statistical areas. The vehicles are distributed to the metropolitan areas as a function of area population and off-peak marginal cost of electricity for the local power pool. The scenarios contain several different EHV cars, vans, and trucks (differences include battery type, ac or dc drive, and hybrid or straight electric mode). Daily electricity consumption is calculated for each metropolitan area for the country by scenario year. 5 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs.
Three scenarios for electric and hybrid vehicle commercialization
1990
40 pages
Report
Keine Angabe
Englisch
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