Japan, long regarded as America's bedrock ally in the Asia-Pacific region, is in the midst of the most extensive review of defense policy in more than twenty years. The results of this assessment will likely unfold incrementally rather than in one fell swoop. Nonetheless, by the end of the century we should see a new security relationship between Washington and Tokyo, more autonomous Japanese military capabilities, and increased participation on the part of Japan in multilateral security organizations. At the core of this rethinking is the likely emergence of a National Defense Program Outline in the coming year. Current Japanese defense planning is based upon guidelines outlined in 1976. A special advisory panel was named in early 1994 to restructure the outline to reflect the emerging global order. The panel delivered a report on 'The Modality of the Security and Defense Capability of Japan: The Outlook for the 21st Century' to Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama in August 1994. The National Defense Program is now under review, with an official version expected by year's end. Even if the advisory report receives a dilatory response, it will survive as a powerful guide for Japanese defense planners. Above all, the report calls for a new comprehensive strategy, arguing that 'Japan should extricate itself from its security policy of the past that was, if anything, passive, and henceforth play an active role in shaping a new order.' Japan's post-Cold War strategy should rest on heightened multilateral cooperation, continued alliance with America, and well-balanced, ready, and mobile military forces.


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