Providing predictive information is expected to be an effective way in reducing congestion because travellers can have information of future traffic conditions and plan their travel ahead of time. However, due to the complex and computational expense of traffic flow forecasting, only short horizon future travel times can be generated and provided, which seems not sufficient for travellers to accurately plan their travel along an entire path. In this study, the authors have developed a simulation model to investigate the impact that limited time-span predictions have on the effectiveness of the predictive information. The results indicate that even though the predicted horizon is very short, the predictive information can still perform better than the current prevailing information. Sensitivity analysis of market penetration rates and prediction horizons is also discussed. This study is expected to be guidance for practical implementation and operation of short-term predictive information scenarios.
Effects of predictive horizon on network performance under short-term predictive information
IET Intelligent Transport Systems ; 12 , 2 ; 113-119
2017-12-06
7 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
traffic flow forecasting , time-span predictions , short horizon future travel times , short-term predictive information , network performance , market penetration rates , sensitivity analysis , travellers , road traffic , traffic engineering computing , digital simulation , predictive horizon , simulation model , congestion reduction , traffic conditions
Metadata by IET is licensed under CC BY 3.0
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