The invention discloses an automobile charging load scene prediction method based on an optimal quantile of a probability model. The method comprises the steps of 1, firstly obtaining shared automobile data of each path of a road network; 2, constructing an electric vehicle initial charging time probability density function model, and performing optimal division point position and probability calculation based on a scene generation method of a distance scene optimal division point; 3, constructing a probability density function model of the charging duration of the electric vehicle, and calculating a numerical solution of discrete quantiles of the charging duration of the electric vehicle by taking a Runge-Kutta algorithm as a numerical integration program and taking a Levenberg Marquardtalgorithm as an optimization program, namely, an optimal division point of the charging duration; and 4, performing scene reduction and fusion processing under a parallel architecture, thereby calculating charging load demand prediction of each charging node in each time period. According to the invention, a data basic reference is provided for electric vehicle charging facility planning and construction; and the problems of computational analysis, power grid economic dispatch and network loss in a power distribution network are solved.

    基于概率模型最优分位点的汽车充电负荷场景预测方法,步骤一:首先获取路网各路径共享汽车数据;步骤二:构建电动汽车起始充电时间概率密度函数模型并基于距离场景最优分位点的场景生成方法,进行最优分为点位置以及概率计算;步骤三:构建电动汽车充电时长的概率密度函数模型,通过龙格‑库塔算法作为数值积分程序,列文伯格‑马夸德算法作为优化程序来计算电动汽车充电时长的离散分位点的数值解,即充电时长的最优分为点;步骤四、进行平行架构下的场景削减与融合处理,从而计算各时间段内个充电节点的充电负荷需求预测;本发明为电动汽车充电设施规划建设提供数据基础参考;有利于解决配电网路中的计算分析与电网经济调度和网络损耗问题。


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    Titel :

    Automobile charging load scene prediction method based on optimal quantile of probability model


    Weitere Titelangaben:

    基于概率模型最优分位点的汽车充电负荷场景预测方法


    Beteiligte:
    YANG YANG (Autor:in) / WANG SHU (Autor:in)

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2021-01-12


    Medientyp :

    Patent


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Chinesisch


    Klassifikation :

    IPC:    G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES / B60L PROPULSION OF ELECTRICALLY-PROPELLED VEHICLES , Antrieb von elektrisch angetriebenen Fahrzeugen / H02J CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER , Schaltungsanordnungen oder Systeme für die Abgabe oder Verteilung elektrischer Leistung



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