The invention relates to a ship trajectory real-time predicting method. The ship trajectory real-time predicting method comprises the following steps that firstly, real-time and historical position information of a ship is obtained through sea surface radar and is primarily processed; then, ship trajectory data are preprocessed at each sampling time, then are clustered at each sampling time and are subjected to parameter training through a hidden Markov model at each sampling time, and then a hidden state q corresponding to the observation value at the current time is obtained by the adoption of a Viterbi algorithm according to parameters of the hidden Markov model at each sampling time; finally, by setting the prediction time domain W at each sampling time, on the basis of the hidden state q of the ship at the current time, the position prediction value O of the ship in the future is obtained, and therefore the ship trajectory in the future can be obtained in a rolling speculation mode at each sampling time. The ship trajectory real-time predicting method predicts the ship trajectory in real time in a rolling mode, is good in accuracy and provides powerful guarantee for subsequent ship conflict resolution.
Ship trajectory real-time predicting method
2015-04-22
Patent
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
IPC: | G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS |
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