Abstract The Cosmos 1408 man-made breakup event generated a large number of fragments. These fragments pose a threat to the operating spacecrafts in the Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The lifetimes of cataloged Cosmos 1408 fragments are shorter than those of fragments simulated by NASA's breakup model. Therefore, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) was used to modify the parameters in the breakup model, and the modified debris cloud highly matches the SSN cataloged fragments. The Cosmos debris cloud was simulated by the optimized breakup model, and the impact of this event on the space debris environment, the International Space Station (ISS) and the Chinese Space Station (CSS) was analyzed by applying Space Debris Environment Engineering Model 2019 (SDEEM 2019) and Survivability of Spacecraft in Space Debris Environment (S3DE). The results show that most (90%) dangerous debris was estimated to reenter within one year due to atmospheric drag. The sensitivity analysis for the ISS and the CSS shows that the sensitivity of the threatening debris of the ISS and the CSS increases about 40% and 50% over a future decade compared to that without this event, respectively.
Highlights Debris reentry rate can be fitted by modifying the area-to-mass distribution. Particle swarm optimization algorithm is used for optimizing the breakup model. Impact of the Cosmos 1408 fragments on space debris environment decreases rapidly. Probability of impact on two space stations by dangerous debris increases in a decade.
The consequences of Cosmos 1408 breakup: The optimization of the breakup model and the influence of debris clouds
Acta Astronautica ; 206 ; 156-167
2023-02-15
12 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
Comparisons of debris environment model breakup models
AIAA | 1993
|Orbital debris from upper-stage breakup
NTRS | 1989
|Orbital debris from upper-stage breakup
TIBKAT | 1989
|Evaluation of Reentry Breakup and Debris Generation
British Library Conference Proceedings | 2012
|