Research highlights ▶ Effect of significant wave height (SWH) on the probability of casualty. ▶ Effect of wind strength (WS) on the probability of casualty. ▶ Changes of the effect of SWH and WS on level of risk over time. ▶ Effect of changing oceanographic conditions in the North Atlantic on safety of ships.
Abstract This study uses econometric models to measure the effect of significant wave height and wind strength on the probability of casualty and tests whether these effects changed. While both effects are in particular relevant for stability and strength calculations of vessels, it is also helpful for the development of ship construction standards in general to counteract increased risk resulting from changing oceanographic conditions. The authors analyzed a unique dataset of 3.2 million observations from 20,729 individual vessels in the North Atlantic and Arctic regions gathered during the period 1979–2007. The results show that although there is a seasonal pattern in the probability of casualty especially during the winter months, the effect of wind strength and significant wave height do not follow the same seasonal pattern. Additionally, over time, significant wave height shows an increasing effect in January, March, May and October while wind strength shows a decreasing effect, especially in January, March and May. The models can be used to simulate relationships and help understand the relationships. This is of particular interest to naval architects and ship designers as well as multilateral agencies such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that establish global standards in ship design and construction.
Econometric analysis of the changing effects in wind strength and significant wave height on the probability of casualty in shipping
Accident Analysis and Prevention ; 43 , 3 ; 1252-1266
2011-01-13
15 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
Econometric modelling of world shipping
TIBKAT | 1993
|An econometric analysis for container shipping market
Taylor & Francis Verlag | 2009
|An econometric analysis for container shipping market
Online Contents | 2009
|Traffic and Casualty Trends in Canadian Arctic Shipping
British Library Conference Proceedings | 2010
|