Highlights ► We compare the temporal patterns in highway crash between senior and non-senior drivers on different road segments in Connecticut using dynamic time series modeling in a Bayesian framework. ► We find dynamic generalized linear models have better model fit and prediction accuracy than usual negative binomial regression models. ► The results show that both rural surface roads and limited access roads are getting safer over time, but more so for non-senior than senior drivers on surface roads.

    Abstract This paper introduces dynamic time series modeling in a Bayesian framework to uncover temporal patterns in highway crashes in Connecticut. Existing state sources provide data describing the time for each crash and demographic attributes of persons involved over the time period from January 1995 to December 2009 as well as the traffic volumes and the characteristics of the roads on which these crashes occurred. Induced exposure techniques are used to estimate the exposure for senior and non-senior drivers by road access type (limited access and surface roads) and area type (urban or rural). We show that these dynamic models fit the data better than the usual GLM framework while also permitting discovery of temporal trends in the estimation of parameters, and that computational difficulties arising from Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques can be handled by the innovative Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA). Using these techniques we find that while overall safety is increasing over time, the level of safety for senior drivers has remained more stagnant than for non-senior drivers, particularly on rural limited access roads. The greatest opportunity for improvement of safety for senior drivers is on rural surface roads.


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    Titel :

    Temporal modeling of highway crash counts for senior and non-senior drivers


    Beteiligte:
    Hu, Shan (Autor:in) / Ivan, John N. (Autor:in) / Ravishanker, Nalini (Autor:in) / Mooradian, James (Autor:in)

    Erschienen in:

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2012-08-02


    Format / Umfang :

    11 pages




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch





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