Highlights A powerful earthquake of Mw =7.7 struck the Saravan region (28.107°N, 62.053°E) in SE Iran on 16 April 2013 at 10:44:17 UTC This paper presents an application of ANN+PSO method to detect the unusual variations of the thermal and TEC anomalies The results indicate that the proposed method is quite promising and deserves serious attention as a new tool for TEC anomalies detection.

    Abstract A powerful earthquake of Mw =7.7 struck the Saravan region (28.107°N, 62.053°E) in Iran on 16 April 2013. Up to now nomination of an automated anomaly detection method in a non linear time series of earthquake precursor has been an attractive and challenging task. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) have revealed strong potentials in accurate time series prediction. This paper presents the first study of an integration of ANN and PSO method in the research of earthquake precursors to detect the unusual variations of the thermal and total electron content (TEC) seismo-ionospheric anomalies induced by the strong earthquake of Saravan. In this study, to overcome the stagnation in local minimum during the ANN training, PSO as an optimization method is used instead of traditional algorithms for training the ANN method. The proposed hybrid method detected a considerable number of anomalies 4 and 8days preceding the earthquake. Since, in this case study, ionospheric TEC anomalies induced by seismic activity is confused with background fluctuations due to solar activity, a multi-resolution time series processing technique based on wavelet transform has been applied on TEC signal variations. In view of the fact that the accordance in the final results deduced from some robust methods is a convincing indication for the efficiency of the method, therefore the detected thermal and TEC anomalies using the ANN+PSO method were compared to the results with regard to the observed anomalies by implementing the mean, median, Wavelet, Kalman filter, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) methods. The results indicate that the ANN+PSO method is quite promising and deserves serious attention as a new tool for thermal and TEC seismo anomalies detection.


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    Titel :

    Thermal and TEC anomalies detection using an intelligent hybrid system around the time of the Saravan, Iran, (Mw =7.7) earthquake of 16 April 2013


    Beteiligte:

    Erschienen in:

    Advances in Space Research ; 53 , 4 ; 647-655


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2013-12-16


    Format / Umfang :

    9 pages




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch