Highlights Drivers chose slower speeds than required to maximize their pay-out. Low chances of arriving in time were overestimated. High chances of avoiding an accident were underestimated. At moderate speeds the severity of a potential collision was overestimated.
Abstract This paper introduces a new approach to model the psychological determinants of drivers’ speed choice: prospect-balancing theory. The theory transfers psychological insight into the bounded rationality of human decision-making to the field of driving behaviour. Speed choice is conceptualized as a trade-off between two options for action: the option to drive slower and the option to drive faster. Each option is weighted according to a subjective value and a subjectively weighted probability attributed to the achievement of the associated action goal; e.g. to avoid an accident by driving more slowly. The theory proposes that the subjective values and weightings of probability differ systematically from the objective conditions and thereby usually favour a cautious speed choice. A driving simulation study with 24 male participants supports this assumption. In a conflict between a monetary gain in case of fast arrival and a monetary loss in case of a collision with a deer, participants chose a velocity lower than that which would maximize their pay-out. Participants’ subjective certainty of arriving in time and of avoiding a deer collision assessed at different driving speeds diverged from the respective objective probabilities in accordance with the observed bias in choice of speed. Results suggest that the bounded rationality of drivers’ speed choice might be used to support attempts to improve road safety. Thus, understanding the motivational and perceptual determinants of this intuitive mode of decision-making might be a worthwhile focus of future research.
Prospect balancing theory: Bounded rationality of drivers’ speed choice
Accident Analysis and Prevention ; 63 ; 49-64
2013-10-21
16 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
Prospect balancing theory: Bounded rationality of drivers’ speed choice
Online Contents | 2014
|Traveling Mode Choice Model under Bounded Rationality
ASCE | 2019
|Drivers’ Route Choice Behavior Analysis Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory
Trans Tech Publications | 2014
|A Departure Time Choice Model with Bounded Rationality
ASCE | 2013
|