AbstractReliability has long been recognized as a critical attribute for space systems, and potential causes of on-orbit failures are carefully sought for identification and elimination through various types of testing prior to launch. From a statistical or actuarial perspective, several parameters or characteristics of the spacecraft, such as mission type, orbit, or spacecraft complexity, can potentially affect the probability of failure of satellites. In this paper, we explore the correlation between satellite mass, considered here as a proxy for size, and satellite reliability, and we investigate whether different classes of satellites, defined in terms of mass, exhibit different reliability profiles. To this end, we first conduct nonparametric analysis of satellite reliability based on a sample of 1394 recently launched Earth-orbiting satellites. The satellites are organized in three main categories defined by satellite mass (Small–Medium–Large). Three nonparametric reliability curves are thus derived and different reliability behaviors for the various satellite mass categories are identified. We then provide parametric fits of the reliability curves using the maximum likelihood estimation method as well as mixtures of Weibull distributions. Finally, we discuss possible structural and causal reasons for these trends and failure differences, in particular with respect to design, testing and procurement practices.


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    Titel :

    Statistical reliability analysis of satellites by mass category: Does spacecraft size matter?


    Beteiligte:

    Erschienen in:

    Acta Astronautica ; 67 , 5-6 ; 584-595


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2010-04-21


    Format / Umfang :

    12 pages




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch