AbstractWe have realized that the quantitative analysis of safety data is an advanced technology of unsafely events research. Based on the analysis and statistical research on Air Traffic Control irregular events of 2011 using The Threat and Error Management (TEM) model, we have established the Bayesian network model to perform a precise quantitative analysis on the relevance between the threat, error and undesired states in Air Traffic Control operation. This analysis, based on the prior probability, obtained the relevance of the three kinds of safety information above through studying the respective posterior probabilities of threats or errors under undesired states. The result showed that the relevance of controller communication error and undesired states was 75%, and the relevance of Air Traffic Control threats as well as communication error with undesired states in Air Traffic Control was 13.3% and 25%, respectively. Therefore, this research method is of great significance for improving the mechanism of the Air Traffic Control operation risk management.

    HighlightsThe development of the occurrence of all unsafe events is not in accordance with “threat-error-undesired states” mode.Aerial threats was the mojor factor of Communication error.Communication error of ATC was the key factor of the occurrence of undesired states on the ground.The factors of leading to undesired states in the air were varied, including threat and error factors.


    Zugriff

    Zugriff prüfen

    Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

    Bestellung bei Subito €


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    Relevance research of threat/ error and undesired states in air traffic management based on Bayesian Network Model


    Beteiligte:
    Zhao, Yifei (Autor:in) / Hua, Shanshan (Autor:in) / Ren, Xinhui (Autor:in)

    Erschienen in:

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2017-01-11


    Format / Umfang :

    4 pages




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch




    Threat arid Error Management for Business Aviation

    Stein, P. N. / Heinrich, D. / Flight Safety Foundation et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2007


    Corrosion threat assessment of crude oil flow lines using Bayesian network model

    Koch, G. / Ayello, F. / Khare, V. et al. | Tema Archiv | 2015


    Undesired quick action of brakes

    Engineering Index Backfile | 1913


    Preventing Aim At An Undesired Target

    Goodzeit, Neil E. | NTRS | 1991


    DETERMINING AN UNDESIRED ACTION OF A VEHICLE

    ARAÚJO JOSÉ / TAYAMON SOMA | Europäisches Patentamt | 2020

    Freier Zugriff