Abstract A differential algebra based representation and propagation of the Line of Variations for Near Earth Objects impact monitoring is presented in this paper. The Line of Variations is described at the initial epoch by a high-order polynomial that is propagated forward in time. An Automatic Domain Splitting algorithm is embedded in the numerical integrator, in such a way that when the polynomials truncation error becomes too large, the line is split as many times as necessary to meet accuracy requirements. The Line of Variations is propagated forward in time until an intersection with a properly defined target plane occurs for all the generated subdomains. The subdomains are then projected onto the target plane to compute the impact probability by numerically integrating an associated one-dimensional probability density function. The proposed approach is applied to several test-cases to assess the performance of the method for the different possible shapes of the initial confidence region. Starting from a case of direct encounter, the technique is tested up to the case of a resonant return, which features critical nonlinearities.
Highlights Application of differential algebra to NEO impact probability computation is shown. A new implementation of the Line of Variations technique is presented. An efficient method to handle nonlinearities at planetary encounters is illustrated. The algorithm is applied to several NEO test cases: 2010 RF12, Apophis, 2016 LP10. An extension of the approach is introduced to allow for two-dimensional computations.
Impact probability computation for NEO resonant returns through a polynomial representation of the Line of Variations
Acta Astronautica ; 168 ; 80-91
2019-07-09
12 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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