Abstract So-called “killer” electrons are electrons of relativistic energies (more than 1–2MeV) forming the outer radiation belt. Their fluxes present a serious threat for on-board electronics of spacecraft orbiting in geosynchronous orbit. This provides actuality of the problem of electron flux forecast. The population of energetic electrons grows after immersion of the Earth's magnetosphere into a high-speed stream of the solar wind. One of the main mechanisms of acceleration of magnetospheric electrons to relativistic energies assumed to be their wave-particle interaction with the ultra-low-frequency or very-low-frequency waves. Accordingly, the previously proposed prognostic methods were based on the connection of the outer radiation belt population with the speed of the solar wind and the activity of the low-frequency waves in the magnetosphere. In this paper, we propose to build a forecast based on a new kind of the multiple regressions model with sliding window of predictors. A set of predictors used in the successful multiple regressions model include parameters that reflect processes of replenishment of the outer radiation belt due to the acceleration of seed electrons as well as processes of the devastation of the electron flux in the geosynchronous region due to outward adiabatic transport and outward radial diffusion. To characterize these processes, we use the following set of parameters measured on the ground and in situ: the solar wind speed, density and dynamic pressure of the interplanetary plasma, the intensity of ultra-low-frequency oscillations in front of the magnetosphere and on the ground, the flux of seed electrons (of hundreds eV energy) at geosynchronous orbit, the actual values of the magnetic field at L=6.6, and interplanetary electric field. Coefficients in the model equation are derived from experimental data using the least-squares method. Test calculations using the proposed model have shown promising results.

    Highlights A set of predictors to forecast “killer” electron flux is chosen. To build forecast we use a modified multiple regression. Test of the forecast method is made using observations during a period of 1999–2005.


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    Titel :

    A new approach to predict and estimate enhancements of “killer” electron flux at geosynchronous orbit


    Beteiligte:

    Erschienen in:

    Acta Astronautica ; 126 ; 47-51


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2016-04-12


    Format / Umfang :

    5 pages




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch