Abstract Projecting technology performance evolution has been improving over the years. Reliable quantitative forecasting methods have been developed that project the growth, diffusion, and performance of technology in time, including projecting technology substitutions, saturation levels, and performance improvements. These forecasts can be applied at the early stages of space technology planning to better predict available future technology performance, assure the successful selection of technology, and improve technology systems management strategy. Often what is published as a technology forecast is simply scenario planning, usually made by extrapolating current trends into the future, with perhaps some subjective insight added. Typically, the accuracy of such predictions falls rapidly with distance in time. Quantitative technology forecasting (QTF), on the other hand, includes the study of historic data to identify one of or a combination of several recognized universal technology diffusion or substitution patterns. In the same manner that quantitative models of physical phenomena provide excellent predictions of system behavior, so do QTF models provide reliable technological performance trajectories. In practice, a quantitative technology forecast is completed to ascertain with confidence when the projected performance of a technology or system of technologies will occur. Such projections provide reliable time-referenced information when considering cost and performance trade-offs in maintaining, replacing, or migrating a technology, component, or system. This paper introduces various quantitative technology forecasting techniques and illustrates their practical application in space technology and technology systems management.


    Zugriff

    Zugriff prüfen

    Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

    Bestellung bei Subito €


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    Projecting technology change to improve space technology planning and systems management


    Beteiligte:

    Erschienen in:

    Acta Astronautica ; 68 , 7-8 ; 853-861


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2010-08-23


    Format / Umfang :

    9 pages




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch







    Projecting Into The Future: The Human Resource Management Planning Process

    Taylor, D. C. / Pence, E. C. / Loveland, K. et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1992


    Space Station technology planning

    Smylie, R. E. | NTRS | 1985