Highlights The marginal effects of weather and climate variables on CO2 emissions are derived. Changes in both the emission factors and activity–travel variables are calculated. 5°C warmer climate and 50% more extreme temperature lead to 10% more CO2 emissions. Precipitation intensity and snow depth show limited influence on CO2 emissions.
Abstract There is a considerable body of studies on the relationship between daily transport activities and CO2 emissions. However, how these emissions vary in different weather conditions within and between the seasons of the year is largely unknown. Because individual activity–travel patterns are not static but vary in different weather conditions, it is immensely important to understand how CO2 emissions vary due to the change of weather. Using Swedish National Travel Survey data, with emission factors calculated through the European emission factor model ARTEMIS, this study is a first attempt to derive the amount of CO2 emission changes subject to the change of weather conditions. A series of econometric models was used to model travel behaviour variables that are crucial for influencing individual CO2 emissions. The marginal effects of weather variables on travel behaviour variables were derived. The results show an increase of individual CO2 emissions in a warmer climate and in more extreme temperature conditions, whereas increasing precipitation amounts and snow depths show limited effects on individual CO2 emissions. It is worth noting that the change in CO2 emissions in the scenario of a warmer climate and a more extreme temperature tends to be greater than the sum of changes in CO2 emissions in each individual scenario. Given that a warmer climate and more extreme weather could co-occur more frequently in the future, this result suggests even greater individual CO2 emissions than expected in such a future climate.
Estimating changes in transport CO2 emissions due to changes in weather and climate in Sweden
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment ; 49 ; 172-187
2016-01-01
16 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
Estimating changes in transport CO2 emissions due to changes in weather and climate in Sweden
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