Highlights A quite rich dataset about route choice behavior and VMS information was collected in Beijing, China. Prospect theory was applied to capture drivers’ route choice behavior under VMS. Drivers were classified into different types by significant influencing factors. The parameters of the value function were estimated and verified empirically. Heterogeneity-based analysis of risk attitudes in route choice behavior was represented.
Abstract This paper applied prospect theory (PT) to describe drivers’ route choice behavior under Variable Message Sign (VMS), which presented visual traffic information to assist them to make route choice decisions. A quite rich empirical data from questionnaire and field spot was used to estimate parameters of PT. In order to make the parameters more realistic with drivers’ attitudes, they were classified into different types by significant factors influencing their behaviors. Based on the travel time distribution of alternative routes and route choice results from questionnaire, the parameterized value function of each category was figured out, which represented drivers’ risk attitudes and choice characteristics. The empirical verification showed that the estimates were acceptable and effective. The result showed drivers’ risk attitudes and route choice characteristics could be captured by PT under real-time information shown on VMS. For practical application, once drivers’ route choice characteristics and parameters were identified, their route choice behavior under different road conditions could be predicted accurately, which was the basis of traffic guidance measures formulation and implementation for targeted traffic management. Moreover, the heterogeneous risk attitudes among drivers should be considered when releasing traffic information and regulating traffic flow.
Prospect theory based estimation of drivers’ risk attitudes in route choice behaviors
Accident Analysis and Prevention ; 73 ; 1-11
2014-08-05
11 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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