In countries with high population density, evacuating large amount of people in a short time post-disaster is a critical challenge for emergency response agencies. This paper analyzes the reliability of highway evacuation network post earthquake disaster. The capacity of road segment after disasters is modeled as discrete probability function. A modified stochastic flow algorithm based on k-shortest path algorithm is proposed to calculate the possibility of transporting given number of people in pre-defined time window on potentially damaged highway network. Northeast Sichuan is used as case study site and real world data is collected to develop multiple scenarios in order to test the proposed methodology. The results show that the reliability of evacuation network is highly sensitive to the tightness of evacuation time window and the damage probability of critical road segment. The proposed methodology illustrates prominent potential of application in regional emergency planning and risk assessment.
Reliability Analysis of Highway Evacuation Network Post-Earthquake Disaster
Ninth Asia Pacific Transportation Development Conference ; 2012 ; Chongqing, China
Sustainable Transportation Systems ; 404-411
2012-06-28
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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