This paper presents a simple method for freeway traffic incidents short term prediction based on the traffic flow theory. A model is proposed to estimate the probability of traffic incidents occurrence, which is achieved by analyzing traffic flow data from two neighboring detectors. The proposed model indicates that the probability of traffic incident occurrence is positively related to two terms: a) the ratio of the upstream traffic density to the steady traffic density, and b) the speed difference between the upstream traffic and the downstream traffic. The empirical data from Dutch motorways is used to calibrate the model. This method appears promising for the application in the on-line traffic incidents predictions in the future.


    Zugriff

    Zugriff prüfen

    Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

    Bestellung bei Subito €


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    Short-Term Prediction for the Occurrence Probability of Traffic Incidents in Freeways


    Beteiligte:
    Wang, Hao (Autor:in) / Wang, Wei (Autor:in)

    Kongress:

    Second International Conference on Transportation Engineering ; 2009 ; Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China



    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2009-07-29




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Konferenz)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch




    Short-Term Prediction for the Occurrence Probability of Traffic Incidents in Freeways

    Wang, H. / Wang, W. / China Communications and Transportation Association; Transportation & Development Institute (American Society of Civil Engineers) | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2009


    Detection of Incidents and Traffic Disturbances in Freeways

    Chassiakos, A. P. / Stephanedes, Y. J. / ASCE | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1993


    Traffic Prediction in Metropolitan Freeways

    Liberto, Carlo / Ragona, Roberto / Valenti, Gaetano | ASCE | 2010


    Traffic Prediction in Metropolitan Freeways

    Liberto, C. / Ragona, R. / Valenti, G. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2010